Russia and China: Friends Without Benefits?

(wsj.com) - Russian President Vladimir Putin has just concluded a visit to Beijing, where, after announcing a few big-sounding energy deals, he said that Russia and China were “friends forever.” These days everyone wants a good relationship with China, but Mr. Putin does so from a disadvantageous position. Russia is one of the few countries in the world with few friends besides China. (North Korea and Pakistan are other examples–anyone else?) I’ve argued before that when China is your only friend it’s hard to have a mutually respectful relationship. Most matters will be resolved on Chinese terms, and Beijing can drive a hard bargain because you’ve got nowhere else to go. A plugged-in Chinese scholar once told me how his country’s intelligence officials viewed Russia: “We think Putin has misjudged his power position in the world.”

Was this imbalance on display during Mr. Putin’s visit?  Chinese decorum is famous, even when receiving down-on-their-luck visitors, so President Xi Jinping was polite.  But it’s not hard to imagine what was on his mind.

Suppose Mr. Putin broke the conversational ice by gloating about the U.K.’s Brexit vote and the stupidity of decision-making by referendum, perhaps invoking his own 80% approval rating as a guarantee of policy steadiness. Mr. Xi might smile, but he’d be aware that Russian parliamentary elections are coming in September and that Mr. Putin’s party, United Russia, has only 35% popular approval.

Mr. Putin might also have derided Western governments for their inability to stick with long-term strategies. Mr. Xi might totally agree—but he’d make a mental note that just last week the European Union renewed its sanctions against Russia through 2017. “That’ll be three years,” he’d think. “Does Putin not know I know that?”

Mr. Xi would doubtless have a similar reaction when his guest urged deeper cooperation between Russia and China. To explain how much both sides would benefit, Mr. Putin might note that China’s economic growth has dropped from double digits to less than 7% annually. But Mr. Xi would know full well that Russia’s own economic outlook is far worse. Without drastic policy changes, Mr. Putin admitted recently, growth is likely to “hover around zero.”

Mr. Putin might then get to his point: Because Russia needs Chinese investment to revive growth, it’s been really disappointed that Beijing’s investment since 2014 has fallen by 85%. Mr. Xi’s inner reaction to Mr. Putin’s appeal isn’t hard to guess: With the ruble having lost more than half its value, China can buy what it wants for less! But no need to rub that in. If, with no other buyers on the horizon, Russia is now ready to sell off parts of its oil and gas sector, then China is ready to pick up a few bargains. That was the real news of this summit. It’s what being “friends forever” actually means. (Source)