Will Brexit Drive Scotland out of the United Kingdom?

newsweek.com - The decision by British voters last June to leave the European Union has thrown that bloc into turmoil. But its implications for Great Britain could be even more profound, portending the dissolution of the United Kingdom.

Prime Minister Theresa May could trigger Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty as early as March 15, starting the two-year timetable for negotiating the terms of the U.K.’s divorce from the E.U.

The prime minister should beware the Ides of March: It seems all but inevitable that Scotland’s government will respond by calling for a second referendum on Scottish independence. The ultimate result could be the reemergence of a sovereign Scotland, more than 300 years after the Acts of Union (1706–1707) united the cross of St. Andrew and the cross of St. George.

When Scots rejected independence by a 55 to 45 percent margin in a September 2014 referendum, most assumed the matter had been put to bed for at least a generation.

The shocking Brexit vote upended that expectation. As Scotland’s sovereigntist-minded first minister, Nicola Sturgeon, observes, Scots who voted for “union” less than three years ago assumed that the (still) United Kingdom would remain in the EU. And in the more recent “Brexit” vote, they overwhelmingly (62 percent) supported the “Remain” camp. Given the dramatically altered landscape, Scots deserve the opportunity to reconsider their ties with the United Kingdom.

As Sturgeon sees it, the Brexit outcome revealed “a wider democratic deficit within the U.K., where decisions about Scotland are too often taken against the wishes of the people who live here.” Her Scottish National Party (SNP) has been cheered by the comments of no less than former U.K. Prime Minister Tony Blair, who says Brexit makes the case for Scottish independence much more credible.

In October, the Scottish government published a draft bill that would (if approved by the Scottish Parliament at Holyrood) launch consultations to authorize a second referendum.

Wittingly or not, Prime Minister May has bolstered Scotland’s independence movement by insisting on a “hard exit” from the EU.

Scottish members of the U.K. Parliament in Westminster worry about losing access to the EU’s single market. True, trade between the U.K. and Scotland—worth £49.8 billion ($61 billion) in 2015—is four times the value of Scottish exports to the rest of the EU. But the benefits of the single market are substantial, and many Scots are not willing to risk them in return for greater U.K. restrictions on migration. (ontinueReading