Bloomberg - True to his threat, Venezuela’s president, Nicolas Maduro, will proceed with an election on July 30 that will start the process for convening a constituent assembly to consider changing the country’s constitution. His adversaries oppose the move as an illegal power grab, predicting that Maduro will stack the assembly with his supporters and move the country closer to a dictatorship. International opposition is building. U.S. President Donald Trump warned of “strong and swift economic actions” if Maduro proceeds with his plans. The head of the Organization of American States has called for fresh presidential elections and Spain’s former prime minister has tried to broker a compromise.
1. How is this expected to work?
Unless Maduro withdraws the proposal at the last minute -- either because of pressure from within his own party and the military or an agreement with the opposition -- voters will be asked to select 545 delegates who will make up the constituent assembly and re-write the constitution. But what’s not on the ballot is just as important as what is. Voters are not being asked if they even want the assembly, which polls say only about 20 percent of Venezuelans support. With the opposition boycotting the process altogether, all the names on the ballot presumably are Maduro supporters, and only about 25 of them are known politicians. If the vote goes forward, the government can’t lose.
2. What does Maduro most want to change in the constitution?
Since announcing his plan to convoke “la constituyente” in May, Maduro has been vague about what he wants to achieve or why the country needs it, other than to say the body will be a “grand dialogue,” an “encounter,” and an opportunity for Venezuelans to “live in peace and end the violence.” He’s also said the opposition will be defeated once and for all. Just three days ahead of the vote, Maduro called on the opposition to open a new dialogue, but his adversaries aren’t likely to go along: Past offers to engage in talks have resulted in the government refusing to make any concessions. Finance and oil officials, meanwhile, have hinted that they want to use the process to increase the already heavy role of the state in the country’s economy. The only thing certain is that, once convened, Venezuela will wake up to a different country, and no one really knows what comes next.
3. Does this mean Venezuela could soon be a dictatorship?
The constituyente would certainly represent an escalation of recent steps in that direction. Once convened, it will preside over all other branches of government, and it alone will be able to determine how long it should remain in power. Analysts expect Maduro to quickly use the body to force out Luisa Ortega Diaz, the public prosecutor who has emerged as his fiercest critic from within the ruling socialist party. Critics also worry that the new assembly could delay scheduled regional and presidential elections that most polls show the government couldn’t win. (ontinueReading
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