Are Mexico's Elections Russia's Next Target?

-theatlantic.com - Amid the political firestorm over Russian meddling in the 2016 presidential elections here in the United States, it may have been easy to overlook the steady drip of warnings about a possible replay of Russian mischief-making right next door in Mexico. Back in December, National Security Adviser H.R. McMaster spoke ominously about “initial signs” of a trademark campaign of subversion, disinformation, and propaganda, ahead of Mexico’s presidential elections on July 1. One month later at a press conference in Mexico City on February 1, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson was asked about evidence of Russian election interference. He had this advice to offer to Mexican officials: “Pay attention. Pay attention to what’s happening.”

But it’s unclear whether Mexican officials, who have repeatedly denied that they see any signs of Russian interference, will heed such advice. President Donald Trump’s relentless vitriol for Mexican immigrants and contempt for nafta haven’t exactly endeared his administration to Mexicans, potentially undermining the credibility of such warnings from Washington. (Tillerson didn’t do himself any favors when he called the Monroe Doctrine, which called for keeping European powers out of the Americas, “as relevant today as it was the day it was written.”) Mexico may even view U.S. warnings about the Russian threat as a potential smokescreen for Washington’s intention to interfere in its election, which will pit the unpopular incumbent Institutional Revolutionary Party and the center-right National Action Party against frontrunner and fiery populist Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, the former mayor of Mexico City known as amlo. Indeed, some members of the U.S. political establishment seem to view Lopez Obrador as the second coming of Hugo Chavez.

Against this backdrop, it’s uncertain whether the United States or its European allies will be able to share with Mexico the lessons they’ve learned from their own election experiences, let alone with the long roster of Latin American countries holding national elections this year, including Colombia, Brazil, Venezuela, Costa Rica, and Paraguay. But unless countries like Mexico confront election-related vulnerabilities and the manipulation of voters through fake news and propaganda, the democratic process will be at risk.

Why would Russia choose to meddle with Mexico? For one thing, Moscow seeks to project itself as a great power. It likely sees Mexico’s election as an opportunity to reciprocate for what it perceives as Washington’s long history of meddling in the internal political of former Soviet states. Interfering in the Mexican election is also an easy way for Russia to cast itself as an equal to the United States—to show that it’s no mere regional power, to borrow from Barack Obama’s unfortunate phrasing.

By now, Russia also knows that effective influence campaigns require eager audiences—which, thanks in part to Trump, it’s likely to find in Mexico. According to a 2017 Pew survey, 65 percent of Mexicans express a negative opinion of the United States, more than double the share two years ago. This downturn in relations has strengthened the resolve of Mexican political and economic elites to diversify their country’s foreign policy and trade relationships, given the damage Trump has done to America’s image as a reliable partner. Taken together, this anti-American animus and white-hot anger inside the electorate about a soaring crime rate, Mexico’s failed war on drugs, and endemic corruption help make Mexican audiences amenable to the kind of reports that are dished out 24/7 by the Spanish language arms of Russia’s sprawling propaganda apparatus.