Showing posts with label Pakistan. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Pakistan. Show all posts

Tuesday, August 6, 2019

In Kashmir Move, Critics Say, Modi Is Trying to Make India a Hindu Nation

NEW DELHI — To India’s prime minister, Narendra Modi, eliminating the autonomy of Kashmir, a disputed, predominantly Muslim territory, was an administrative move, something his ministers had presented as simply a long-overdue “reorganization.”

But to Mr. Modi’s critics, the decision was an attack at the heart of India’s secular identity and a historic blow to a democracy that celebrates itself as one of the most free and stable in the developing world.

There is little doubt that Kashmir needed fixing. It is one of the bloodiest, most stubborn flash points in South Asia, a complicated, disputed mountainous territory that several times has driven India and Pakistan to war.

Both nations wield nuclear weapons and claim parts of Kashmir. For decades, their prickliness has kept the region trapped in a low-intensity conflict, leaving it depressed, full of rundown villages and the backdrop to a quixotic battle between a few hundred young militants and tens of thousands of Indian troops. ContinueReading

Saturday, March 2, 2019

Deadly Shelling Erupts in Kashmir Between India and Pakistan After Pilot Is Freed

NEW DELHI — Intense shelling erupted along the disputed border between India and Pakistan on Saturday, killing several civilians and making it clear that hostilities between the two nuclear-armed nations were hardly over — only a day after Pakistan handed over a captured Indian fighter pilot in what it called a “good-will gesture.”

At least five civilians and two soldiers were killed, according to officials on both sides.

At the same time, independent security analysts continue to questionIndia’s claims this past week that it had killed “a very large number” of terrorists at a major training camp in a cross-border airstrike. The bold strike set off an enormous mobilization of Indian and Pakistani forces and a cycle of military attacks, bringing South Asia to red alert.

Michael Sheldon, a researcher at the Atlantic Council, a think tank in Washington, said on Saturday that after studying satellite imagery of the area in Pakistan that India had bombed, he could see “no evidence any buildings were hit.” He added, “It appears to me they didn’t hit their targets.”

Instead, he said, all publicly available evidence and accounts from witnesses on the ground indicated that the Indian bombs had landed in an unpopulated forest and had taken out some pine trees. He set out his argument in an online article titled “Surgical Strike in Pakistan a Botched Operation?”


The administration of India’s prime minister, Narendra Modi, who faces an election in a few months, had presented the airstrike as a robust response against a terrorist group, Jaish-e-Mohammed, that claimed responsibility for a devastating suicide bombing in February that killed more than 40 Indian troops. ContinueReading

Friday, February 15, 2019

India unleashes its military on Pakistan after a terror attack stoked the feud between the nuclear rivals

- Indian Prime Minister Narenda Modi on Friday unleashed the country's military against rival Pakistan in response to a terror attack by Muslim separatists that killed 44 on Thursday.

"I know there is deep anger, your blood boils looking at what has happened. At this moment, there are expectations and the feelings of a strong response which is quite natural," Modi said in a speech mourning the police forces killed and those injured.

India regularly accuses Pakistan of training and arming militants and smuggling them across the border into the Indian region of Kashmir, a Muslim-majority region on the countries' shared border.

Following the terror attack, where an explosive-laden truck plowed into a bus carrying police forces, India said it had "incontrovertible evidence" of Pakistan's involvement in the attack. Pakistani-based Islamist militant group Jaish-e-Mohammad claimed the attack, but Pakistan quickly denied any official involvement.

Thursday, November 2, 2017

Beware the China-Pakistan nuclear axis

thehindubusinessline.com - Led by the US and the Soviet Union, the five permanent members of the UN Security Council tried to ensure some five decades ago that they alone had the right to possess nuclear weapons in perpetuity, with the signing of the nuclear non-proliferation treaty. Their nuclear arsenals steadily increased and pleas for disarmament were arrogantly disregarded.

The scenario today is different from what the five envisaged. Nuclear stockpiles have steadily grown. In the past few decades Israel, Pakistan, India and North Korea have joined the ‘nuclear club’. Others like Japan and Iran are capable of doing so when needed. There are an estimated 14,900 nuclear warheads in nine countries, with 93 per cent of these in the possession of the US and Russia.

Little-known facts

While China tested and acquired nuclear weapons in the 1960s, the next country to acquire nuclear weapons was Pakistan, which commenced its quest after the 1971 Bangladesh conflict. India crossed the nuclear threshold only after it received a veiled threat from Pakistan during tensions over military exercises named Operations Brasstacks in January 1987. Instructions were issued in 1988 to nuclear scientist PK Iyengar and scientific adviser VS Arunachalam to assemble a nuclear arsenal. India’s distinguished strategic thinker, K Subrahmanyam, provided the rationale for the nuclear weapons programme. India decisively demonstrated its nuclear weapons capabilities ten years later, with the Pokhran nuclear rests. Pakistan followed barely a fortnight later.

India is today confronted with a situation where China has not only provided Pakistan with designs and equipment to manufacture nuclear weapons, but has also given Pakistan the know-how and materials for manufacturing missiles capable of carrying nuclear weapons to every part of India, including the Andaman Islands. While these facts are known to those involved inside and outside the Government in monitoring nuclear developments, it is astonishing that public knowledge on this crucial issue is limited. Sadly, it has never been debated seriously in Parliament. Surely, the public and Parliament need to know more about these issues to promote awareness of the challenges the nation faces from two hostile neighbours working together. American nuclear analyst Gary Milhollin has perceptively noted: “If you subtract China’s help from Pakistan’s nuclear programme, there is no Pakistani nuclear weapons programme.”

While Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto moved to establish nuclear weapons capability within weeks of the Bangladesh conflict, his prison memoirs suggest that he was guaranteed Chinese assistance after his meeting with Chairman Mao in 1976. China, with antiquated uranium enrichment facilities, benefited from designs stolen by Pakistani nuclear physicist AQ Khan from European (URENCO) enrichment facilities. By the early 1980s, China was providing Pakistan designs for nuclear weapons. China currently has approximately 280 nuclear warheads for delivery by 150 land-based and 48 sea-based missiles and fighter aircraft. While India is estimated to possess 110-120 nuclear warheads, Pakistan has 130-140 nuclear warheads, designed for delivery by ballistic and cruise missiles and aircraft. Experts estimate that Pakistan’s stockpile could potentially grow to 220-250 warheads by 2025, making it the world’s fifth-largest nuclear weapons state. Pakistan’s missiles, with ranges up to 2,750 km, are all of Chinese design and produced at the National Defence Complex facilities in the Kala Chitta Dhar mountain range, to the west of Islamabad. The development, production and test-launching of missiles is done at locations south of Attock, using mobile Chinese designed missile launchers produced in Fateh Jang.

Chinese hand

According to former US Air Force Secretary Thomas Reed, himself a designer of nuclear weapons at America’s Los Alamos Laboratories: “The Chinese did a massive training of Pakistani (nuclear) scientists, brought them to China for lectures, even gave the design of the CHIC-4 device, which was a weapon that was easy to build a model for export. There is evidence that AQ Khan used Chinese designs for his nuclear designs. Notes from those lectures later turned up in Libya. And the Chinese did similar things for the Saudis, North Koreans and Algerians.” The great champions of nuclear non-proliferation in the US, who lectured India for decades, covered up and did nothing to curb the Chinese activities. Pakistan is also known to have received liquid-fuelled ballistic missiles from North Korea in exchange for information on uranium enrichment, in a deal evidently undertaken with Chinese blessings.

Though Pakistan has not enunciated a formal doctrine, its then head of strategic planning at its Nuclear Command Authority, Lt-Gen Khalid Kidwai, had averred that Pakistan’s nuclear weapons are “aimed solely at India”. Kidwai added that Pakistan would use nuclear weapons if India conquers a large part of Pakistani territory, or destroys a large part of its land and air forces. Kidwai also held out the possibility of using nuclear weapons if India tries to “economically strangulate” Pakistan, or pushes it to political destabilisation. India has declared that it will not be the first to use nuclear weapons and will use them only if its territory or armed forces face an attack in which nuclear, chemical or biological weapons are used. Since India has no desire to conquer large parts of Pakistani territory or destroy its armed forces, there is no possibility of India provoking a nuclear conflict. But, given Kidwai’s utterances about a “full spectrum” deterrent involving the use of tactical nuclear weapons, issued after he retired, New Delhi has to carefully review its nuclear strategy imaginatively, bearing in mind that our “no first use “ doctrine has served us well internationally.

Pressure remains

It is obvious, especially after Xi Jinping’s recent enunciation of Chinese global ambitions at the party congress that missile and nuclear proliferation by China to Pakistan will continue in its efforts to “contain” India. Pakistan has already tested a sea-based missile and China is set to strengthen Pakistan’s navy with substantial supply of submarines and frigates. China appears determined to use Pakistan as its stalking horse for its maritime ambitions, to promote its OBOR projects in the Indian Ocean.

The most crucial challenge we face is how to deal with a jingoistic China for whom “containing” India has been a strategic effort for over four decades. Balancing Chinese power involves developing partnerships with others across the Indo-Pacific region. China’s policies are multi-faceted and Beijing will likely avoid open hostility, even as it continues to keep up the pressure along its borders with India and uses proxies across India’s immediate neighbourhood to keep India tied up in South Asia. These issues will, hopefully, be reviewed and discussed in Parliament. (ontinueReading

Thursday, August 31, 2017

We are the world:South Asia floods kill 1,200 and shut 1.8 million children out of school


dhakatribune.com - More than 1,200 people have died across India, Bangladesh and Nepal as a result of flooding, with 40 million affected by the devastation. At least six people, including two toddlers, were among the victims in and around India’s financial capital, the Guardian reports

Heavy monsoon rains have brought Mumbai to a halt for a second day as the worst floods to strike south Asia in years continued to exact a deadly toll.

More than 1,200 people have died across India, Bangladesh and Nepal as a result of flooding, with 40 million affected by the devastation. At least six people, including two toddlers, were among the victims in and around India’s financial capital, the Guardian reports.

The devastating floods have also destroyed or damaged 18,000 schools, meaning that about 1.8 million children cannot go to classes, Save the Children warned on Thursday.

The charity said that hundreds of thousands of children could fall permanently out of the school system if education was not prioritised in relief efforts.

“We haven’t seen flooding on this scale in years and it’s putting the long-term education of an enormous number of children at great risk. From our experience, the importance of education is often under-valued in humanitarian crises and we simply cannot let this happen again. We cannot go backwards,” said Rafay Hussain, Save the Children’s general manager in Bihar state.

On Wednesday, police said a 45-year-old woman and a one-year-old child, members of the same family, had died after their home in the north-eastern suburb of Vikhroli crumbled late on Tuesday, and a two-year-old girl had died in a wall collapse.

The rains have led to flooding in a broad arc stretching across the Himalayan foothills in Bangladesh, Nepal and India, causing landslides, damaging roads and electric towers and washing away tens of thousands of homes and vast swaths of farmland.

The International Federation of the Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) says the fourth significant floods this year have affected more than 7.4 million people in Bangladesh, damaging or destroying more than 697,000 houses.

They have killed 514 in India’s eastern state of Bihar, where 17.1 million have been affected, disaster management officials have been quoted as saying. In the northern state of Uttar Pradesh, about 2.5 million have been affected and the death toll stood at 109 on Tuesday, according to the Straits Times. The IFRC said landslides in Nepal had killed more than 100 people.

The IFRC – working with the Bangladesh Red Crescent Society and the Nepal Red Cross – has launched appeals to support almost 200,000 vulnerable people with immediate relief and long-term help with water and sanitation, health and shelter. (ontinueReading

Monday, August 14, 2017

As India marks 70 years of partition, memories fresh of border bloodshed

- AMRITSAR, India (Reuters) - India's independence from British colonial rule coincided with the partition of the subcontinent into two separate countries, setting off unprecedented communal carnage on both sides of the hastily created border.

A mass migration followed, marred by violence and bloodshed, as about 15 million Muslims, Hindus and Sikhs, fearing discrimination, swapped countries in an upheaval that cost more than a million lives.

During the chaotic transition, train cars full of bodies arrived at railway stations in the twin cities of Lahore and Amritsar in the province of Punjab, which was split roughly down the middle at partition on Aug. 14, 1947.

As India prepares to mark 70 years of independence on Aug. 15, families who witnessed the death and destruction during partition recalled the tales of horror.

Brothers Santa and Niranjan Singh were lucky to survive the crossing from their village of Bhasin on the Pakistani side of the new border to their current home in Sarangra in India.

Santa, then aged 15 or 16, says everyone was baying for blood. People were running around with knives, swords and guns.

Up to a dozen people from their village were killed in the madness, Santa recalls, saying they carried an injured brother across the border after he was shot through the head.

"The bullet went in from one side and went out from the other side of his head," said Santa, reminiscing at a gathering of his extended family. "We carried him all the way and he died after reaching this side."

His younger brother, Niranjan, was barely 5 years old but still remembers the sight of houses being burnt and people being massacred, and hearing stories of women and girls being raped.

Now the brothers live with their children and grandchildren, tending their lush green farmland located just three kilometers from the troubled border.

The separation based on border lines created by the British at the end of their colonial rule came into effect at the stroke of midnight on the eve of Aug. 14, 1947.

India and Pakistan have fought three wars since 1947, and relations remain tense, particularly when it comes to the disputed Himalayan region of Kashmir, which both claim in full but rule in parts.

Even as the rawness of the carnage that marked partition fades into history, the nuclear-armed neighbors re-enact their hostilities in ritual form in a colorful flag ceremony staged as the sun is setting over the Wagah border post that lies midway between Amritsar and Lahore.

Thousands of supporters from each country come to witness a parade of patriotism from their border guards who, in a mock confrontation, goose-step up to each other, stomp their feet and shout their lungs out during their daily retreat.

"Amazing, amazing feeling about my country, about my army," said Phalguni Zaveri, who came from Mumbai with her husband Rahul to witness the parade.

"I am so happy and obliged for making us feel safe." (ontinueReading

Related:

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Tuesday, September 27, 2016

Blocking Indus waters will be act of war: Pakistan


(newindianexpress.com) - ISLAMABAD: Pakistan on Tuesday said India cannot unilaterally revoke the 56-year-old Indus Waters Treaty and that any attempt by New Delhi to block Islamabad's share of water could be seen as an act of war.

Prime Minister's Advisor on Foreign Affairs Sartaj Aziz on Tuesday told the National Assembly that Pakistan would approach the International Court of Justice if India violates the treaty.

Pakistan will not accept "aggression by India in any form" and China would get justification to block Indian water if New Delhi did the same to Islamabad, he said.

Aziz said that India is "feeling pressure" due to Pakistan's diplomatic onslaught against "human rights violation" in Jammu and Kashmir and supporting their right to self determination in accordance with the UN Security Council resolutions.

He said Pakistan will "expose India" before the international community, and added that the government is preparing a comprehensive dossier on alleged Indian spy Kulbhushan Jadhav and "Indian interference in Balochistan".

Aziz said the Indus Waters Treaty offers no unilateral exit provision or revocation, and its role is defined in the treaty in case of violation by any party.

Aziz's statement came a day after Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi held a review of provisions of the Indus Water Treaty with Pakistan and was quoted as saying that "water and blood can't flow at the same time".

New Delhi's stance comes in the wake of the September 18 terror attack on the Uri Army camp in Kashmir which left 18 Indian soldiers dead. India has blamed the attack on Pakistan-based militants and Modi has promised that the sacrifice of the soldiers will not go waste.

Pakistan's former Indus Water Commissioner Jamat Ali Shah on Monday slammed India for threatening to block the flow of water.

He expressed fears that if the treaty gets suspended then India may build up dams on Jhelum and Chenab rivers.

On the Uri attack, Aziz said that Pakistan was ready to extend all possible support for investigation into the incident but it should be conducted by an international body.

Saturday, September 24, 2016

India's Prime Minister Says Pakistan a Haven for Terrorism

(abcnews) - India's prime minister said Saturday that he would work to isolate Pakistan internationally, accusing his country's archrival of trying to destabilize Asia by exporting terrorism.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi said in a nationally televised speech that in the last four months, Indian security forces have killed 110 terrorists who crossed over the cease-fire line in Kashmir from Pakistani territory.

"There would have been a bloodbath had they succeeded in carrying out attacks in India," Modi said.

He said terrorist attacks in Bangladesh and Afghanistan were also being instigated from Pakistan.

"We will isolate you," Modi warned Pakistan. "I will work for that."

Modi's speech in the southern Indian town of Kozhikode was his first since 18 soldiers were killed in an attack on an army base in Indian-controlled Kashmir last Sunday. Indian investigators say maps, weapons and other evidence indicated that the attackers were from Jaish-e-Mohammed, an outlawed militant group based in Pakistan. Pakistan denies the charge.

"Let me tell Pakistan that the sacrifice of 18 Indian soldiers will not go to waste," Modi said in his speech.

"There is one nation in Asia whose aim is to spread terrorism and is working toward ensuring that the 21st century does not belong to Asia," he said, referring to Pakistan. "Every nation is holding only one country responsible for terrorism. Only one country in Asia is a safe haven for terrorists."

Pakistan's Foreign Ministry said Saturday evening that it would release an official reaction to Modi's comments later. (FullText)

Tuesday, August 30, 2016

US, India bolster ties, warn Pakistan over extremists

(yahoonews) - The United States and India urged Pakistan Tuesday to do more to counter extremist groups operating from its soil as the world's two largest democracies announced measures to strengthen security and energy ties.

Speaking on a visit to New Delhi, US Secretary of State John Kerry declared that ties once clouded by suspicion had progressed "amazingly" in the last two years and echoed President Barack Obama's description of their relationship as "the defining partnership of the 21st century".

India and the United States have a common goal in creating a counterbalance to the rise of China and hold regular top-level dialogue in Delhi and Washington under a formal strategic partnership.

But a flare-up in violence in Kashmir meant that India's arch-rival Pakistan featured prominently in talks between Kerry and his counterpart, Sushma Swaraj.

After Foreign Minister Swaraj reiterated long-running accusations that Pakistan was "providing safe havens to terror groups," Kerry also urged Islamabad to do more to combat extremists operating from its territory.

He said it was vital Islamabad moved to "deprive any group of sanctuary", highlighting the threat posed by Lashkar-e-Taiba, a Pakistan-based Kashmiri separatist group behind a string of anti-Indian attacks.

"We will not and we cannot make distinctions between good and bad terrorists... Terrorism is terrorism," Kerry said at a press conference alongside Swaraj.

Kerry said the US government had "had conversations with all members of the region frankly about efforts they need to take against terrorism which comes out of their country", adding that he had personally raised the issue with Pakistan's Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif.

India has accused Pakistan of stoking a new bout of unrest in Kashmir, the troubled Himalayan region which has been divided between the two countries since independence in 1947 and is claimed in full by both.

Saturday, August 20, 2016

India non-serious in finding solution to Kashmir dispute: Maleeha Lodhi


NEW YORK (Web Desk) - Pakistan's Permanent Representative to the UN Dr. Maleeha Lodhi said on Saturday that India is non-serious in finding a solution to the Kashmir dispute.

It is obligatory upon the United Nations to persuade the Indian government for peaceful settlement of the long-standing Kashmir dispute, she said.

The envoy said that India's arrogance is deteriorating situation in the region that can be a threat to regional and international peace and security.

She said Pakistan is highlighting Kashmir issue at all forums to seek international attention and the letter of the UN Secretary General to Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif on the issue is an evidence of the government’s efforts.

She said the Prime Minister s letter has been properly responded and circulated among the UNSC members.

In response to PM Nawaz‘s letter on Friday, UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon deplored the ongoing killings in Indian held Kashmir as security forces there try to stamp out weeks of anti-government protests by Kashmiri civilians, and urged India and Pakistan to settle Kashmir and other issues through dialogue.

“I stand ready to offer my good offices, should it be requested by both sides, to facilitate dialogue in order to achieve a negotiated settlement,” he wrote in a letter he sent in response to a letter from Prime Minister Muhammad Nawaz Sharif apprising the UN chief about the deteriorating situation in Kashmir and the large-scale violations of human rights being committed by Indian security forces.

“I deplore the loss of life and hope that all efforts will be made to avoid further violence,” the secretary-general said in his letter, obtained by Associated Press of Pakistan (APP).

At least 70 Kashmiri civilians have been killed and thousands more injured in Indian held Kashmir in clashes with security forces after the killing of a prominent Kashmiri youth leader, Burhan Wani, in a military operation on July 8.

In his letter on August 5, Prime Minister Sharif had called for efforts to end the persistent and egregious violation of the basic human rights of the Kashmiri people and also to implement the decades-old UN Security Council resolutions providing a framework for the settlement of Kashmir dispute through a plebiscite.

“I appreciated the continued commitment of Pakistan to the peaceful resolution of the Kashmir dispute for the sake of regional peace and security, as you reaffirmed in your letter,” Ban said in his letter.

“The United Nations remains convinced that it is only through dialogue that the outstanding issues between Pakistan and India, including on Kashmir, can be addressed.”

The secretary-general said that he looked forward to meeting the Pakistani leader again during the upcoming seventy-first session of the United Nations General Assembly to “discuss matters of common interest.”

Thursday, July 14, 2016

Kashmir protests: Another person succumbs to injuries, death toll reaches 37


(indianexpress.com) - After one more injured succumbed at Sher-i-Kashmir Institute of Medical Sciences Medical College Hospital (SKIMS), the death toll in Kashmir has reached 37. Meanwhile, restrictions and curfew continue in most parts of the Valley for the sixth consecutive day on Thursday.

Irfan Ahmad Dar from South Kashmir’s Kulgam district died in the morning at SKIMS, he was admitted in the hospital on Monday. A senior doctor at SKIMS confirmed the death of Dar in the morning.

“It was a critical case of assault and was brought to hospital on Monday, today morning he succumbed to his injuries,” he said.

Meanwhile, restrictions and curfew continue in place across Kashmir, the South Kashmir’s Anantnag and Kulgam district are under curfew. In the old city areas curfew like restrictions are in place.

So far more than 1600 persons including security force personnel suffered injuries since the killing of Hizbul Mujahideen commander, Burhan Wani on Friday. More than 100 civilians have received eye pellet injuries and many of them have lost their vision.

CM Mehbooba Mufti appealed for peace and said, “We have to jointly safeguard our state and our people from further bloodshed and destruction.”

Saturday, February 13, 2016

Seven killed in gun battle in Indian Kashmir

(yahoonews) - A fierce gun battle killed two soldiers and five suspected militants Saturday in Indian-administered Kashmir near the de facto border with Pakistan, army officials said.

The seven died during a heavy exchange of fire in the border village of Marsari, 130 kilometres (80 miles) northwest of the main city of Srinagar, defence spokesman N. N. Joshi said.

The 16-hour gun battle began on Friday when government forces zeroed in on an abandoned house after receiving information about the presence of suspected rebels.

"One more militant was killed in the operations, bringing their number up to five," Joshi told AFP.

Another defence spokesman, S. D. Goswami, earlier said that two soldiers had been killed.

Two other soldiers were injured and have been taken to a military hospital, according to police.

Kashmir has been divided between India and Pakistan by a heavily militarised Line of Control since the end of British colonial rule in 1947.

Thursday, July 30, 2015

Are India and Pakistan Sliding toward War?


(nationalinterest.org) 07/30/15- The ceasefire agreement reached between India and Pakistan in November 2003 is now unrecognizable, with firing growing steadily since late 2012. Monday’s attack on a police station in the Punjabi town of Gurdaspur, signals a new uptick in violence. The Pakistani press has blamed Kashmiri extremists for the attack, but this could well be the work of a group like the Lashkar e-Taiba. Diplomatic overtures between Prime Ministers Narendra Modi and Nawaz Sharif have been high on visuals, low on substance, and limited to multilateral settings. Conditions are ripe for a crisis in this strained environment, even more so if a terrorist attack on Indian soil—such as Monday’s—is traced back to extremist groups supported by Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI). These rising tensions make crisis management more difficult and increase the risk of a conflict with nuclear dimensions.

Prime Minister Modi’s government has warned Pakistan that it would respond severely to provocations—whether along the Line of Control (LoC) in Kashmir or elsewhere. During the election campaign, Modi took a hard line on Pakistan, criticizing the previous United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government’s “weak stand.” In May 2015, government officials were forced to downplay Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar’s comments on neutralizing “terrorists with terrorists only.” Regarding the Line of Control, in October 2014, then-Defence Minister Arun Jaitley threatened to inflict “unaffordable” costs on Pakistan. In December 2014, Parrikar said that if attacked, Indian forces would “react with double the force.” These deterrent threats—to respond manifold to violence—have failed to diminish violence.

Line of Control ceasefire violations were reported on 21 percent of days in 2013. Violence reached its highest levels since the 2001-2002 “Twin Peaks” crisis sparked by the December 2001 attack by Pakistani-based extremists on the Indian Parliament. This attack, accompanied by heavy firing along the Line of Control, nearly led to war. Almost one million soldiers mobilized. Violence in 2014 and 2015 has remained high, with ceasefire violations reported on 20 percent of days in 2014, and 23 percent of days in the first three months of 2015. By way of comparison, ceasefire violations along the Line of Control were reported on only ten percent of days in 2012.

In this strained environment, Monday’s attack is especially concerning. India and Pakistan have been unable to establish effective diplomatic channels to address outstanding issues. These channels are used only sporadically and in multilateral settings. Efforts to improve trade relations and visa liberalization are proceeding slowly, and there is no forward movement on confidence-building and nuclear risk reduction measures.

Violence migrating from along the Line of Control in Kashmir into Punjab not only poses a barrier to improved ties, but also makes crisis management more difficult and the risks of escalation greater. Terrorist attacks on Indian soil by Pakistan-based extremists sparked two recent crises: in 2008 after the Mumbai attacks, and the 2001-2002 “Twin Peaks” crisis. It remains to be seen whether Prime Minister Modi will show the restraint of his predecessors.

Recent events highlight nuclear risks associated with any India-Pakistan crisis and the wisdom of exerting greater effort to improve bilateral relations. The Line of Control is the only place on Earth where two nuclear-armed rivals regularly exchange fire. Nuclear dangers are reduced when the Line of Control is quiet; they are more worrisome when Indian and Pakistani troops exchange heavy fire.

Increasing violence along the Line of Control and near the India-Pakistan border is a clear and concerning marker of the deterioration of India-Pakistan relations on a broader scale, and makes substantive diplomatic progress between India and Pakistan less likely. Conditions are ripe for a crisis, and violence along the Line of Control will complicate crisis management. The ceasefire put into effect after the 2001-2002 “Twin Peaks” crisis has deteriorated badly. One way for India and Pakistan to stabilize relations would be to reestablish a ceasefire. India and Pakistan have not agreed to new confidence-building measures since 2007. Quieting the Line of Control would be a good place to start.

Thursday, October 10, 2013

India says Pakistan pushing fighters into Kashmir before 2014

 (Reuters) - India's army said on Tuesday that Pakistani troops had helped a group of 30 to 40 insurgents stage the biggest incursion in Kashmir in years, linking it to a plan to push fighters into the region as foreign forces withdraw from neighboring Afghanistan.

Army chief General Bikram Singh's remarks were the first direct allegation against Pakistan since the heavily-armed fighters crossed the Line of Control in Kashmir last month in a setback for a government already seen as soft and indecisive.

The men were holed up in an abandoned village in the Keran sector for nearly a fortnight, an Indian army source earlier told Reuters. That prompted comparisons with the Kargil conflict further north in 1999, when hundreds of Pakistan-backed irregular troops occupied bunkers along a vast swath of the frontier.

"With the eyeball-to-eyeball deployment along the Line of Control, it is well-nigh impossible for the terrorists to do any activity without the knowledge of the Pakistani army," Singh told the Times Now television.

India and Pakistan have fought three wars since independence from Britain in 1947, two of them over Kashmir. The two armies frequently exchanged artillery fire across the Himalayan region for years until a 2003 ceasefire that has been fraying in recent months.

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