UN forecasts end of global population explosion

(IrishTimes) 8/12/15 - For the past 200 years the global population has risen explosively. There were 1 billion humans in 1850. There are 7.3 billion today. Ever since the Industrial Revolution, humanity has lived in quiet dread that somewhere there is a limit, and the Malthusian horsemen of plague, starvation and war will one day punish our effrontery.

Demographic change is easy to miss, because it happens slowly, but we stand on the cusp of a profound change in the human condition. New projections from the UN suggest that, in a few decades, we could secure a stable global population.

To be clear, the forecasts do not show an imminent end to population growth – far from it. The global population has the momentum of an elephant on an ice rink. The UN’s medium-variant projection shows a rise to 9.7 billion people in 2050 and 11.2 billion by 2100.

But recent data and short-term forecasts also show a dramatic slide in fertility rates. People everywhere are having fewer babies. If the trend continues then, in decades, the global population will flatten out. The UN says there is a 23 per cent chance of that happening by 2100.

The plunge in childbearing is startling. Eighty-three countries containing 46 per cent of the world’s population – including every single country in Europe – now have fertility below replacement rate of about 2.1 births per woman. Another 46 per cent live in countries where the birth rate has fallen sharply. In 48 countries the population will decline between now and 2050.